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FxPro:美元下跌

2012年09月12日 13:53 来源: 金融界网站 【字体:

  尽管昨天的回升比较温和,周四联邦公开市场委员会会议上的故事之一就是进一步刺激手段会让美元备受压力。对于黄金多头,也是贵金属市场的好消息之一。三月份黄金和美元指数之间的(逆)相关系数是今年的一个高位(-0.74)。而另一个突出的事件就是中国股市的下跌,考虑到其国内经济的放缓已经让人担心的话。中央银行发布的新人民币贷款数据比预期要高,这反映了目前的复杂政策背景,而当局则敏锐的声明要确保房地产市场不受影响。随着德国宪法法院明天将要宣判(也许会有延期),我们仍然为外汇市场的持续紧张而担心,昨日欧元/美元因后非农就业取得的收获而颇有收益。

  The dollar drift

  Although there was a modest recovery yesterday, the story going into Thursday’s FOMC meeting is one of a US dollar under pressure as expectations of further stimulus measures abound. For gold bulls, this has also given the metal a much welcomed boost, the 3 month (inverse) correlation between gold and the dollar index at a high for the year (at -0.74). The other stand out in overnight activity has been the decline in Chinese stocks, against the background of continued concerns over the slowdown being seen in the domestic economy. The fact that new yuan loans data from the central bank was higher than expected just reflects the complicated policy backdrop at the moment, the authorities keen to ensure this does not lead to further problems in the property market. With the German constitutional court decision looming tomorrow (although still talk of a possible delay), we are set for continued nervousness in FX markets, with EUR/USD having struggled yesterday to build on Friday’s post-payrolls gains.

  Ben 不能冒无限购买的风险

  随着上周四超级马里奥承诺无限债券购买,有人开始推测下周他们碰面的时候,美联储主席伯南克可能会选择无限购买。以我们的观点来看,这不太可能发生,虽然美联储正在考虑进一步的货币刺激政策。无限量大规模量化政策此时正是要点,因为有人真正在关心过量的资产购买风险会扰动国债市场的深层流动性,而国债市场对于美元和全球金融系统是至关重要的。

  例如,2007年末,总的公司债券交易商头寸达到有史以来最高值,将近3000亿美元,根据最新的美联储数据。但是,8月29日的那个周末,这些头寸已经跌到不超过600亿美元,差不多只有最高值的五分之一。同时,美联储必须认识到,只是简单的承诺坚守近零利率到2015年不能应对目前的经济形式。因为已经承诺,某种形式的附加大规模量化政策必须施行。一个建议就是美联储要宣布一种具体的大规模量化政策目标,并且前提是资产购买要继续下去,如果经济不能突破增长瓶颈的话。这种特别的想法部分解决了更多大规模量化政策可能会带来市场流动性影响的疑问。但同时,这只能让美联储遇见更多同样的问题,如果特定条件无法达到的话。最重要的是,美联储目前的环境预示着货币政策的未来异常凶险。不说伯南克的抗议,美联储的政策智囊团已经没有拿得出手的东西了。他们惟一可行的道路是走非传统路线,未经验证的回应可能会有无法预测的后果,比大规模量化政策的后果还难预测。这不会是一个适合投资的环境。

  现在预测澳元下一步的行动会是一件特别令人感兴趣的事情。做空头的应该注意到这样一个事实,即澳元用了两个星期从1.06跌到1.02以下,但只花了两天就回升到1.04。对澳元有消极情绪的人比较关注全球增长的惨淡前景(特别是中国),因为交易商保留住极端净长仓,而且未来几个几个季度澳大利亚的利率套息优势可能会消失。相比之下,做多头的会喜欢澳元因为澳大利亚是现存的极少数几个真正三A级别主权信用国家之一,因此澳元会继续得到主权财富基金的配额,而美国和其他国家则会继续求助于大规模量化政策(而澳洲联储不会),其经济增长前景也比其他大多数发达经济体要更好。未来几周会有一场拉锯战。最近我们曾提到,针对澳元的价格行动对空头交易不会特别有利,因为下降的速度太缓慢了。我们也会发现,澳元目前的交易在未来几个月会在1.06的上部区域及下部的比价附近进行。

  Ben must not risk unlimited purchases.

  Following on from Super-Mario’s commitment last Thursday to unlimited bond purchases, there is growing speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke might also opt for unlimited purchases when they meet later in the week. From our perspective, this looks unlikely, although the Fed are clearly considering further monetary stimulus. Unlimited QE at this point is a very big call to make if only because there are genuine concerns that excessive asset purchases risk undermining the deep liquidity of the treasury market which is so fundamental both to the dollar and the global financial system. Signs are already emerging that the market for American fixed income securities is much less liquid, not just because of the Fed’s huge presence but also regulatory changes, the Fed’s ZIRP and the demands imposed by client account segregation.

  For example, in late 2007 total dealer positions in corporate bonds reached an all-time high of nearly USD 300 bn, according to recent Fed data. However, in the week ended August 29th, these positions had been pared back to less than USD 60bn, barely a fifth of the record high. At the same time, the Fed must recognise that simply extending the commitment to near zero interest rates out to 2015 will not wash as a sufficient response to the current economic situation. Having committed to a response, extra QE of some form or other must be delivered. One suggestion is that the Fed will announce a specific QE target, with the proviso that asset purchases will continue if the economy does not achieve a certain growth threshold. This particular idea partially gets around the reservations regarding the market liquidity impact of more QE, but at the same time pre-commits the Fed to more of the same if certain conditions are not met. More than anything, the fact that the Fed are in this position simply highlights the cul-de-sac that monetary policy now finds itself in. Despite Bernanke’s protestations, the Fed’s policy locker is virtually empty. The only path left for them is non-traditional, untested policy responses, which could have unintended consequences even greater than those of QE, hardly an environment conducive to investing.

  The Aussie arm-wrestle.Anticipating the Aussie’s next move is a particularly interesting task right now. The bears should take note of the fact that it took two weeks for the AUD to decline from 1.06 to just under 1.02, but only two days to jump back up to 1.04. For those with a negative disposition towards the Aussie, they are focused on the generally pallid global growth picture (especially coming out of China), the extreme net long positions being held by traders, and the likelihood that Australia’s interest rate carry advantage will disappear over coming quarters. In contrast, the bulls like the AUD because Australia is one of the very few genuinely AAA-rated sovereign credits still around, sovereign wealth funds continue to allocate to the AUD as a result, the US and others continue to resort to QE (whereas the RBA does not) and the growth outlook down under is better than most other advanced economies. In coming weeks, it should be a fascinating tug-of-war. Recently we suggested that the price action for the Aussie was not especially supportive of the bearish case, in that the pace of descent was much too gradual. We may well find that the AUD now trades in a range over the next few months bounded by 1.06 on the topside and parity on the downside.

  中国也需要刺激

  周四欧洲央行承诺无限制债券购买计划后,随着美联储这周四即将宣布更多大规模量化政策,从各个角度看中国的决策者都可能会很快加入。很明显的是,经济仍然在挣扎企图回到过去几年曾经有过的辉煌。上个月工业生产的增长同比下跌到8.9%,是三年以来的新低,而且固定资产投资的增长继续放缓。根据中国日报的数据,商务部已经承认八月的交易数字“不令人振奋”。上周早些时候,制造业指数今年首次收缩了。2012年前7个月,中国的造船厂新订单的数据减少了51%。更不要说上个月,居民消费价格因为食品价格上涨而上升了。通胀的总方向仍然是下行的。对于制造业来说,8月价格同比下跌3.5%。最近几天,北京已经宣布了一个1250亿美元的基础设施项目。更多缓和政策姿态的声明显然还会有。7月5号中国人民银行减少了关键贷款利率,而银行存款准备金率(仍然相当高)自从五月以来就没有降低过。值得注意的是,中国决策者应对突发的经济放缓还相当迟钝。

  China also set to stimulate.

  After Thursday’s commitment from the ECB to unlimited bond purchases and with the Fed set to announce more QE as soon as this Thursday, there is every prospect that Chinese policy-makers will soon join them. Apparent is that the economy is still struggling to regain anything like the momentum it has had over recent years. Growth in industrial production fell to 8.9% YoY last month, a three-year low, and fixed asset investment growth continues to slow. According to the China Daily, the Commerce Ministry has confessed that the August trade figures ‘are not encouraging’. Early last week, an index of manufacturing contracted for the first time this year, and Chinese shipyards suffered a 51% decline in new orders in the first seven months of 2012. Notwithstanding a rise in consumer prices last month because of higher food prices, the general direction for inflation is still downwards. At the producer level, prices dropped by 3.5% YoY in August. In recent days, Beijing announced an additional USD 125bn of infrastructure projects. More announcements aimed at easing the stance of policy are surely on the way. The PBOC last reduced key lending rates on July 5th, and the bank reserve ratio (which remains extremely high) has not been lowered since May. It is remarkable just how hesitant Chinese policy-makers have been in their response to the obviously abrupt economic slowdown.

  美元动荡下行

  过去几周货币市场的焦点就是欧元区的积极趋势。Draghi 的无限量冲销式购债计划的提议引起了积极的回应,特别是上周计划的细节宣布以后。但是,值得注意的是美元已经屈服于持续的售出压力。自从7月末开始,美元指数已经下降了4.6%,下降幅度不小,但却没有如预期那样吸引过多重视的目光。

  美元下行动荡的主要催化剂就是劳动力市场持续病态,而且美联储发誓要对之采取行动。周四,联邦开放市场委员会可能会将利率指数引导延期到2014年,并承诺更多资产购买计划。美联储官员清楚的表示关注目前缺乏增行的形势,他们也害怕,如果华盛顿没能在年前避过财政风险,那么经济会很容易就进入衰退。

  虽然更多大规模量化政策肯定会来到,不太清楚的是其大小和时间安排。有趣的是,有人说伯南克会对此会采取开放的态度,他会宣布大规模量化政策,但不会确定有多大也不会说在何时。从策略上讲,这会给风险资产和高风险货币一些保障。同时,也会夺去华盛顿一些风头,因为政客们非常安心,他们知道在无为而治的情况下,美联储会准备好应对的。

  如果美联储施行这个开放政策的话,那么美元可能会进一步触底。此外,这也会把单一货币推到1.30的高位。

  FxPro Forex NewsThe dollar’s downward drift

  Over the past few weeks the main focus of currency markets has been on some of the positive developments emerging out of the eurozone. Draghi’s OMT initiative elicited a particularly positive response when the details were announced last week. However, it is also the case that the dollar has been subject to consistent selling pressure - since late July, the dollar index has fallen by 4.6%, a sizable decline that has attracted less critical comment than might have been expected.

  The main catalyst for the dollar’s downward drift has been the continuing malaise in the labour market, and the Fed’s vow to do something about it. On Thursday, the FOMC will likely extend their interest rate guidance out past 2014, and commit to more asset purchases. Fed officials are clearly concerned over the lack of growth; they also fear that if Washington fails to arrest the fiscal cliff before the end of the year then the economy could easily fall back into recession.

  Although more QE is definitely coming, less clear is what the size and timing will be. One interesting suggestion is that Bernanke will opt for an open-ended approach on this occasion, where he announces QE but does not specify how much or when. Strategically, this gives risk assets and high-beta currencies some reassurance that the Fed will be there as a backstop in case the economy deteriorates. At the same time, it might take some of the heat off Washington, as politicians would be safe in the knowledge that in the event of inaction, the Fed would be ready to respond.

  Should the Fed implement this open-ended approach, then the dollar could be expected to lose some further ground. In addition, it might help the single currency push on towards the 1.30 level.

  机构来源:FxPro

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